TLDR: Since Tesla’s June 2025 robotaxi launch, Tesla has built a 39-vehicle unsupervised fleet, while Waymo has a newly disclosed 3,791-vehicle U.S. fleet. So Tesla appears to be on pace to catch up with Waymo’s autonomous fleet size by the year 2111. Assuming, of course, Waymo politely stops building autonomous vehicles and waits for Tesla until the 22nd century.
Tesla is an AI / robotics company, not just a car company.
That’s not me saying that, I’m just saying what I heard from the CEO.
The full quote, from the first 2024 earnings call, gives interesting insight into Elon Musk’s vision for autonomy and AI as his company’s future:
“… I think Cathie Wood said it best. Like really, we should be thought of as an AI or robotics company.
If you value Tesla as just like an auto company, you just have to — fundamentally, it’s just the wrong framework and if you ask the wrong question, then the right answer is impossible.”
So, with Tesla’s signature autonomy product being released about a year ago, and with an obvious incumbent competitor in Waymo being forced to reveal their fleet size due to a recall, it’s an apt time for a comparison.
Unfortunately for Tesla, it’s really no contest.
Failure to Launch: Tesla Adding About 1 Unsupervised Robotaxi per Week.
The neat thing about Tesla is that it has an extremely technical fanbase. People are constantly making apps and gizmos to track the company’s products, achievements, and frequent issues.
One enterprising Tesla-watcher devised a pretty accurate crowd-sourced tracker for Tesla’s robotaxi rollout, creatively named… Robotaxi Tracker!
https://robotaxitracker.com/?provider=tesla
Locals report sightings. Riders submit evidence. The tracker compiles it. Given how much attention these vehicles get, and given how cagey Tesla is about publishing their autonomous fleet data, this ends up being a surprisingly hard-to-manipulate basis for comparing progress.
And it also makes it clear why Tesla doesn’t want to publish fleet size numbers.
Just 39 unsupervised Tesla robotaxis across all markets.
This is a company whose stock has been moonward-bound on the promise that the autonomy breakthrough is right around the corner. Nearly a year after launch, we are still talking about a fleet size that could be parked at a medium-sized wedding venue.
A note on supervised robotaxis
A “supervised robotaxi” is Tesla’s oddball workaround for not having filed the correct paperwork in California. Obviously, it’s an oxymoron, the “supervisor” is driving the car but with Tesla’s autonomy suite active. This is how some Uber drivers have been using FSD for years, much to their passengers’ horror or delight (depending on if they are Tesla fans or not).
Obviously, I’m not including these non-robotaxis in the robotaxi count, because Tesla doesn’t believe they are robotaxis, either. If Tesla thought a supervised “robotaxi” was a robotaxi, they would have applied for an autonomous license of the type held by Waymo in California, which to my knowledge, they still have not done.
Read more with Reuters in Tesla touts California robotaxis but does nothing to get permits.
A Flood of Waymo Autonomous Vehicles
OK, I didn’t quite have the vision for that “flood of Waymos” joke, so like a Waymo, I decided to just wing it and dive right in, the water looked fine.
Waymo recalled 3,791 autonomous vehicles built on its 5th and 6th-gen ADS system last week after a single unoccupied unit drove into San Antonio floodwater and got swept away.
Not a great look for a safety-focused autonomous cab brand, but an absolute banger of a horror movie concept.
Take a look, the Austin American-Statesman and San Antonio Express-News broke the story: https://www.statesman.com/business/article/waymo-recall-san-antonio-flood-22254607.php
Now, that 3,791 Waymo unit count is interesting, because it lets us know approximately how large the largest competitor fleet is, so that we can compare the progress that Tesla’s robotaxi program has made.
Just to reiterate, Tesla’s robotaxi situation is truly dismal. It will take 85 years for Tesla to match where Waymo is today, and that’s assuming Waymo stops growing and doesn’t just repeatedly lap the competition.
Scratch Paper for My Math Nerds
Want to do some math? Trick question, of course you do! Click here for the methodology section. It’s real easy to follow.
First paid robotaxi ride was June 22, 2025, per Reuters. That was 324 days ago, per me, counting in my head an embarrassing number of times.
Robotaxi Tracker reports 39 unsupervised robotaxis. That’s about 0.12 unsupervised Teslas added per day (39 divided by 324).
Waymo’s NHTSA recall notice as of last week reports 3,791 Waymo vehicles.
Even I can handle this math.
To get from 39 to 3,791 at a pace of 39 per 324 days, you need to add 3,752 vehicles. That takes:
(3,791 – 39) ÷ (39/324) = 31,170 days
That’s 31,170 days, so, divided by 365, that’s 85 years and change.
In 85 years, the year will be 2111, so if your plan is to hold, you better be ready to hold the bag until you’re reading this from a lunar hospice.
See, who said the methodology section can’t be fun?
Bad News for the Tesla as a Fledgling Autonomy Company
Turns out autonomy is a competitive market with incumbents that already exist in the real world. That part matters.
Tesla has spent years telling investors it’s an AI company. It has also spent the last year giving the public a robotaxi rollout that looks like it was assembled using leftover duct tape and over-optimistic tweets.
This is the awkward part. Tesla has the things you’d want if you were serious about scaling a fleet: vertical integration, full control of both software and factories. If this product was ready to scale, Tesla could scale it.
Instead, we have a 39-car unsupervised cohort, nearly a year in, and a competitor quietly operating at a scale in the thousands.
That gap doesn’t look soluble, at least not with any of the pieces that are currently on the board. That gap is the difference between a pilot program or a beta test, and an actual transportation business.
